J.U.A.N. Just Uselessly Average Now

.252/.312/.409 2010
.287/.332/.478 2009
.246/.282/.438 2008



Those are Juan Rivera's triple slash lines from the past three years. Are you impressed? I'm not. He is currently batting .167 (5/31). He has struck out 4 times (almost as often as he has gotten a hit) has yet to take a walk. Tonight marks the 10th game of the season for the Blue Jays, which means that we should give Juan a break shouldn't we? John Farrell says we should, suggesting that he still has faith in Juan and is going to let him play it out every night. But even if he does get back to form, how good is that form? In 2009 Juan hit 25 hr and drove in 52 runs. He had a similar year in 2006 posting 23 hr and 85 rbi. Other than those two years Juan has never hit more than 15 hr in a season nor has he drove in more than 59 runs. Juan Rivera has never put together a string of two successful seasons. Instead he has flip-flopped between adequacy and above-average talent. I understand Farrell's message: faith in his players, but as a fan I don't care about Juan Rivera. He belongs in the what have you done for me lately category.
So we have a DH who is unable to H. We have a third baseman with a rubber arm but a potentially filthy bat. Is it just me or does it seem pretty obvious that Edwin fits better as a DH and Juan fits better on the bench (of another team). We have a third baseman who everyone said was spectacular during spring and has a ceiling as good as any hitter at his level in the minors. Why aren't we taking a chance? Oh ya so we can wait for Juan to have a hot streak for a month, get his sub-par stats in the books and then watch his aging body stand as a free-out in our line-up. I get it. I totally understand the situation from a Managers perspective. He has to encourage, show faith and gain the confidence of his players. But from a business prospective you have to cut loose the dying horse, sell it for what you can and use the money to build and train a new horse.
I know I have already commented about Brett Lawrie during the off-season, but the numbers just don't seem worth it. The young jays have a chance to do something special this year. I am not claiming World Series Champions. They have the ability to instill within themselves a winning attitude, the mentality that this team can match up with anyone's lineup. The players are bonding, showing a real urge to fight for each other. This is encouraging, you need your team to be like a family so that they can battle for each other and encourage rather than discourage. Juan Rivera is not part of that family. He is more like the boyfriend of a relative that no one likes and hopes wont be part of the family for too long. Lawrie needs to be born into this Blue Jays family and there is no time like the present.

G.

Toronto (2-1) vs Oakland (1-2)

The Blue Jays’ second series of the year begins tomorrow against the Oakland Athletics.

Toronto’s starting pitcher Jo-Jo Reyes, who arrived in Toronto in last year’s trade for Alex Gonzalez, will start for the Jays. In favour of the Jays starter, only four of the Athletics have seen Reyes in the past, and none with any regularity. However, Reyes only made the Jays starting rotation following an injury to No. 2 starter Brandon Morrow, and is expected to return to the bullpen when Morrow returns. Reyes is not a sure thing.

The Athletics’ starter Brandon McCarthy pitched most recently for Texas, and had some success there but has been riddled with injury problems for the past several years. A career FIP differential of only 0.72 suggests a fairly even matchup between these two starters.

In the batter’s box, the Jays will be looking to newly-signed Jose Bautista to continue the strong start he has had to the season, and hoping that J.P. Arencibia can do the same. All eyes will continue be on John Farrell after opening the season with a successful double steal on Friday, but then sacrificing an important out on the Yunel Escobar sacrifice bunt late in the game in Sunday’s loss to the Twins. Although Escobar has a higher than average ground ball rate, he is far from being a serious double play threat, especially considering his speed.

This game should be far from a pitcher’s duel, and should be a nice matchup for Toronto’s hot offense in the year’s second series.

Minnesota Takes Notice of New Look Jays.

Kyle Drabek just finished his first start of the year and is line to pick up the first major league win of his promising career. A single, which due to a misplay by Snider in LF allowed the runner Span to reach second, was the first and only hit the Blue Jays right-handed pitcher gave up. Drabek pitched 7 strong innings while giving up 1 earned run and striking out 7 batters.

The Minnesota Twins have already taken notice of the running game the Jays hope to utilize throughout the year as throughout today's game they were checking runners at first and seemed nervous awaiting double steals, hit and runs and other National League oriented plays. With runners on base Minnesota pitcher Francisco Liriano seemed erratic and unable to keep his composure throwing his well-known tight slider into the dirt on several occasions.

Farrell made fans a little nervous with the projected line-up today but considering how the game played out Farrell looks like a genius. Mike McCoy started the day playing CF mainly due to Rajai Davis and a sore ankle, but Farrell decidedly start Nix at third, Molina behind the plate and sat Travis Snider. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if Molina always catches Drabek as the mentoring and confidence Molina brings behind the plate will be a great way to monitor and develop Drabek throughout the year. Newcomer Jayson Nix was slotted to bat 6th and play third and did not disappoint. Nix has good career numbers against Liriano and it showed in the bottom of the fourth when Nix drilled a no-doubter into the LF seats, reestablishing the Blue Jays one-run lead. Farrell's final decision to sit Snider against a tough lefty in Liriano makes complete sense. We have bench players who need to get into the game and there is not need to hurt Snider's progress. Snider is still learning the art of hitting tough lefties but has no problem hitting Slowey. Hist first home-run of his career came against Slowey and when he pinch hit for Rivera in the bottom of the 5th Snider tagged a first pitch change-up from Slowey into the RF corner scoring both Lind & E5.

I'm not sure if Farrell has a DeLorean hiding somewhere in the SkyDome but boy did he look like he could predict the future today. Subbing in Nix and pinch hitting for Rivera both turned out to be game defining moments. Farrell and the rest of the new-look Blue Jays have yet to disappoint. Keep rolling boys.

G.

Jose Who?

Video

I understand that baseball is the American pass time but I am getting tired of the lack of effort from the American media - specifically Mlb.com - in regards to their coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays. The video linked above is a perfect example of frustrating coverage as Mark McLemore (right) cannot verify seemingly obvious facts about Blue Jays players. In regards to Jose Bautista playing right field, "it is probably his natural position...Jose Bautista is probably a natural out fielder". Probably? The guy lead the league in home runs last year, won a silver slugger award and just signed a multi-year deal - so you know he has been in the news - and you can't even bother to check out his profile on mlb.com (the company you are doing coverage for, by the way) where it clearly says Jose Bautista 19 | RF . lazy.

G.

Sent Down But Not Out

As expected Brett Lawrie will start the year in AAA. Just watched Jays Connected where John Farrell Mentioned that his lack of AAA experience, playing a hitherto new position and everyday playing time were key factors in the decision to send him down; for those upstairs, the fact that it will help them with arbitration and contractually in the future. I understand the fact that its a new position and I like that idea that they want him playing everyday, for at the major league level he wouldn't get the chance to play everyday. I expect we will see him in June, or as soon as an injury occurs; barring any setback from Lawrie. It makes sense and will hopefully help his development but you can't help but love his play so far and I, like most Jays fans, wish we could see him on opening day in a Toronto Blue Jays uniform.
Good luck Lawrie, hope to see you soon.

G.

Crumbs of Counsel

A few interesting crumbs of information today. First I would like to share a video from MLB.com that analyzes Bautista's change in stance and approach at the plate since coming over to Toronto from Pittsburgh.

VIDEO

Secondly, sad news today. Apparently Morrow has been experiencing inflammation in his forearm and will be put on the 15 day-DL. If all goes well and the inflammation subsides he will only be expected to miss one of his regular season starts, but in reality I assume he will miss two or three. With it being the beginning of the season, and with the Jays pitching depth I see no reason as to why the Jays would rush his recovery. Rzepczynski seems to be an obvious candidate to move into the starting role as he has basically established himself on the opening day roster as a reliever, but with Jo-Jo Reyes' lack of options and the fact that the Jays don't want to lose him for nothing I wouldn't be surprised if Reyes' performance tonight against the Yankees will push him in or pull him out of contention for a few spot starts. The Blue Jays do have a break in their schedule after they open the season series against the Twins, which means that the could skip the 5th starter and let Ricky pitch on a regular five days rest. That would give the club the ability to watch Morrow carefully without having to make a major roster decision. I expect that Rzep will get the start and Reyes will start the year out of the bullpen but tonight's game (thankfully being televised) could change their perception on Reyes' readiness.

G.

The Snider Slide

This post comes as a response to several analysts view on Travis Snider. Now the source that finally ticked me over the edge was a purchase of my own and may be a little unknown for some people - MLB 11 The Show for the Playstation 3. Every time Snider comes up to bat (in the game) the announcer proceeds to explain that it is "now or never" for Snider and that he's been in the league for so long and has yet to live up to his potential. This is not the first time I have heard this belief that Snider is a washed up prospect.
First and foremost lets look at Snider's Major League career so far. He played his first game in a Blue Jays uniform 3 years ago. He was a September call up in 2008 and played 24 games. He batted .301 while compiling 2 hr and 13 rbi. The next year he was hindered by injury, while playing in 77 games he batted .241 with 9 hr 29 rbi. Not a great year although I would argue that his lack of production was a direct result of his injury. Now here is where things get a little interesting, 2010 was another year where injuries hurt Snider's production. Another problem here was a wonderful manager who decided that Snider should be batting lead off. . . Yes the prospective Home Run king would bat lead off. I generally like Cito in most regards but that decision still gives me nightmares. Snider was still able to compile 14 hr 32 rbi (6 sb - lead off material?) while batting .255. Generally 3 years into their career it is expected that a prospect begins to consistently show signs of his potential, however Snider's situation isn't that of a regular prospect. Most prospects spend 3 or more years in the minors before making it to the show, but Snider spent those 3 years IN the major leagues. So right off the bat we can understand that Snider's 3 years in the majors and his journey to the majors is different than most prospects; very few players rocket themselves to the major league level at 20 years of age. He is only 23 years old, most prospects don't even think about the majors until after their 23rd of 24th birthday!
Snider was drafted 14th overall in 2006 among current MLB players as Evan Longoria, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, Drew Stubbs, Brandon Morrow and Kyle Drabek. Other than Longoria, Stubbs and Lincecum all of the above prospects have had their struggles (that is without mentioning the other 11 players picked before Snider who have yet to truly impact their team; i.e. first overall pick Luke Hochevar). There is an outlier here though that needs to be mentioned and that is age. Lincecum & Stubbs are 4 years older than Snider, Longoria 3 years older. Current Toronto prospects Morrow (4 years) and Drabek (1 year) are still older than Snider. Clayton Kershaw is the only player in the aforementioned group that is the same age as Snider and he has shared his mix of trouble and success. To say that Snider's time is up is ridiculous because Travis was drafted as a youth with an unbelievably high ceiling and in some regards is way ahead of his draft class. Snider's potential made him a viable pick among All-Star caliber players even though he was 3-4 years younger than them, which means that he will take 3 - 4 years to reach where they were (mentally, physically and with consistency) when they were drafted.
My point here is that players who have impacted their franchise at the major league level - Longoria, Stubbs, Lincecum - were about 3+ years older than Snider. Snider is now going into his 4th tour at the major league level, equivalent to the age difference between him and those in his draft class. In those 3 years Snider has been given major league level teachings, workouts and experience, which I argue puts him above those in his draft class because by age 23 none of the aforementioned impact players had any major league experience. The numbers are in accordance with my belief that 2011 will be Travis Snider’s break-out year. His potential is there, the timeline is right and in the event that he doesn’t turn heads and break Bautista’s 54 hr record, lets be honest he is just starting out as a properly aged and physically ready prospect and any success he has in the next two years will be a bonus for Blue Jay fans as he will only be flirting with his peak years. We have something special here a player more prepared than most at his age, still young for a prospect and we are already expecting great things from him before his most beneficial years.

G.